Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.647595 2.167584 2.867018 3.899890 5.427492e+00 7.673081 1.136296e+01
2024-12-15 1.194405 1.795648 2.757872 4.501536 7.807201e+00 14.352315 3.005526e+01
2024-12-22 0.896112 1.502943 2.628585 5.086284 1.104364e+01 27.410275 9.110164e+01
2024-12-29 0.703314 1.300033 2.567620 5.889779 1.635640e+01 59.002459 3.978029e+02
2025-01-05 0.557484 1.121305 2.473741 6.692676 2.416396e+01 138.598968 3.074021e+03
2025-01-12 0.419161 0.896801 2.151957 6.647042 3.021381e+01 279.512386 4.259118e+04
2025-01-19 0.314626 0.706240 1.812600 6.255094 3.500410e+01 537.330919 7.830860e+06
2025-01-26 0.256315 0.606787 1.681392 6.620342 4.844573e+01 1650.371327 NaN
2025-02-02 0.222422 0.558207 1.686953 7.771935 8.101490e+01 11724.621654 NaN
2025-02-09 0.198550 0.528255 1.746164 9.552594 1.544402e+02 590097.197136 NaN
2025-02-16 0.170905 0.474762 1.680185 10.550097 2.546250e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 0.142557 0.407423 1.509520 10.436630 3.438860e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.116275 0.339897 1.306788 9.787286 4.275213e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.102369 0.310898 1.273961 11.007289 8.485066e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.090132 0.283127 1.228877 12.151597 1.764194e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.080808 0.262841 1.212214 13.911478 4.732737e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.072456 0.243077 1.184424 15.653604 1.491077e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.062422 0.212466 1.062627 15.050215 2.672992e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.053310 0.182860 0.927458 13.641717 3.563616e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.047800 0.167227 0.879376 14.288470 1.283044e+05 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.044571 0.160618 0.892491 16.982408 4.073881e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.042257 0.157376 0.930862 21.388700 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.038923 0.147997 0.911169 23.764885 NaN NaN NaN